Can a Moderate Win in Today’s Political Climate? The Numbers Say Yes!

Conventional wisdom says partisanship is at an all-time high, and the narrative suggests moderates don’t stand a chance.

But I wanted to look closer, so I chose Illinois House District 45 to take a dive into the data, and the numbers tell a different story. The latest turnout data shows a clear, data-driven path for a pragmatic Republican to win.... if they can speak to the district, and use the right strategy.

This district is competitive, and has changed hands more than a few times over the decades, and a moderate right-of-center candidate can secure victory in 2026. Here’s how.

The Path to Victory:

HD45 has 84,037 registered voters, and turnout for 2026 is projected at 52.1% (43,780 voters). The magic number to win is just about 23,000 votes.

Republicans make up 32.66% of active voters, compared to 37.33% for Democrats. That means the GOP starts at a disadvantage, but not a huge one... So it can be overcome.

The important group of voters then is the nearly 14,000 swing voters who make up 30% of the district. If a Republican candidate wins just over half of them, they can flip the seat.

But that’s not the only opportunity. Inactive Republicans (who lean right but skip midterms) are just about 3,000 strong, which translates roughly into about 7%, which is more than enough to close the gap.

The Strategy:

Winning in HD45 means prioritizing three key voter groups:

• Republican Base (Hard & Soft GOP Voters) – 15,176 voters: These voters are reliable but need constant engagement to ensure they turn out.
• Swing Voters – 13,937 voters: This group is ideologically mixed but responds well to issue-based persuasion and solution-driven messaging.
• Inactive Republicans – 2,924 voters: These voters don’t always vote, but a targeted GOTV effort can bring them back.

What a Winning Campaign Looks Like

This isn’t a race that can be won with generic GOP talking points. A successful campaign will need a hyper-focused voter outreach plan that includes:

• Knocking on 22,906 doors to directly engage persuadable voters.
• Making 17,692 phone calls to landline voters who prefer traditional outreach.
• Sending 19,877 targeted texts—a cost-effective method at $990 per text pass.
• Leveraging micro-targeted contacts tailored to specific voter concerns.

Bottom Line

The data is clear: A moderate Republican can win HD45 by securing the right mix of base, swing, and inactive voters.

This district isn’t lost to partisanship, like much of the rest of Illinois. It’s waiting for a candidate who speaks to the middle. The campaigns that recognize this will win.

You can read the full report on Linkedin: