The Best Campaigns Balance Data with Instinct
by Caitlin Huxley
Campaigns today live and breathe data. They analyze voter files, track engagement metrics, and build sophisticated models to predict turnout. But relying too much on numbers can be a trap.
Some of the smartest strategists know that intuition (the ability to read a room, sense shifting voter sentiment, and make real-time adjustments) can be just as important as the data itself.
I recently spoke with Mike Yelovich (Linkedin, Twitter) about this, and you can watch it here:
1. Targeting Low-Propensity Swing Voters Is a Game Changer
The hardest voters to reach are often the ones who decide elections. High-propensity partisans are predictable, but low-turnout, persuadable voters can swing a race. Smart campaigns don’t just chase easy wins; they put in the work to identify and engage these critical voters.
2. Polling Is a Process
Some campaigns poll once, set their strategy, and never look back. That’s a mistake. Voter sentiment shifts, and campaigns that track these changes in real time can adjust their messaging, targeting, and spending for maximum impact.
3. Geofencing? Useful, But Not a Magic Bullet
Digital targeting can be effective, but it doesn’t replace human contact. Door knocking, personal phone calls, and volunteer-driven outreach still move the needle more than any tech-driven strategy.
4. Consumer Data Is Evolving... Fast
Voter targeting is no longer just about party registration and past turnout. Smart campaigns integrate commercial data such as purchase habits, media consumption, and issue engagement to refine their messaging. If your campaign isn’t adapting, you’re already behind.
5. Nonpartisan Races Pose Unique Challenges
Without party labels to guide voters, name recognition and issue alignment become even more critical. Campaigns need to be hyper-focused on defining their candidate early and often.
6. Limited Resources Require Smart Trade-Offs
Not every campaign can afford daily tracking polls or cutting-edge analytics. But that doesn’t mean they can’t win. The best campaigns allocate their resources strategically, focusing on high-impact voter contact rather than spreading themselves too thin.
The Takeaway: Use Data as a Tool, Not a Crutch
Winning campaigns understand the numbers but don’t let them dictate every decision. They blend data with field experience, gut instinct, and adaptability.
Success in politics isn’t about choosing between data and intuition. It’s about knowing when to trust each one.